30 November 2006
Part3 Independent Financial Advisor]s Opinion
- It is estimated to grow at 5% per annum from the budget for 2006.
The forecast also includes additional expense estimated by
the Property Manager.
Remark: Full details of assumption is shown in the Attachment 5: Forecast
for 11-month period from 1 February 2007 to 31 December 2007 as prepared
by the Management Company and CPN and reviewed by KPMG Poomchai
Audit Limited, a certified auditor.
The Independent Financial Advisor found that the estimated dividend yield
earned from the investment in the properties of the Central Plaza Pinklao
Project is approximately 8.07% annually, which is close to the estimated
dividend yield calculated by the Independent Financial Advisor based upon
the assumptions and projections from the two independent asset appraisers
Therefore, the estimated dividend yield from the investment in the properties
of the Central Plaza Pinklao Project in 2007 is in the range of 7.54% - 8.07%
annually, which is in the range close to or higher than the dividend yield of
CPNRF and is higher than the average dividend yield of the other listed property
funds that invest in comparable real properties.
The Fund's dividend per unit after the Asset Acquisition
According to the Investment Committee's resolution on November 2, 2006
coupled with the information disclosed to the SET on November 13, 2006,
it was resolved that the Fund would invest in the property of the Central Plaza
Pinklao Project at the maximum asset acquisition price of Baht 6,840.0 million
(equivalent to the price that is 20 % higher than the lower price obtained from
the appraisal reports as prepared by the two independent asset appraisers
appointed by the Fund). The Fund will issue and offer for sale of investment
units in the amount not to exceed 685.5 million units. In accordance with
Forecast for 11-Month Period from February 1, 2007-December 31, 2007 as
prepared by the Management Company and CPN and reviewed by KPMG
Poomchai Audit Limited, a certified auditor, showed as Attachment 5
of Invitation Letter to the Unitholders' Meeting of the CPN Retail Growth
Property Fund No. 1/2549, the impact of investment in the Central Plaza
Pinklao Project by raising capital for the total amount of Baht 7,161.0 million
via means of issuing and offering for sale of 682.0 million investment units
is increase in the Fund's forecast dividend per unit. Forecast dividend
per unit for the 11-month period from February 1-December 31, 2007
that existing unitholders would earn after additional investment in the
Central Plaza Pinklao Project will increase to Baht 0.74 a unit, equivalently
equal to the dividend yield of 7.76 % (based on the closing price of CPNRF
as at October 31, 2006 of Baht 10.40 a share), whereas forecast
dividend per unit for the same period without investment in the Central Plaza
Pinklao Project is Baht 0.72 a unit, equivalent to the dividend yield of 7.55 %
(based on the closing price of CPNRF as at October 31, 2006 of Baht 10.40 a
share). Thus, from the underlying assumptions of such financial forecast coupled
with the assumption that additional investment units to be issued and offered
or sale would not exceed 685.5 million units, the Independent Financial Advisor
expects that dividend payment per unit to be made to existing shareholders
after investment in the Central Plaza Pinklao Project would be higher than
that without such investment.
Conclusion
Taking into account the factor as follows:
- The maximum asset acquisition price of Baht 6,840.0 million, the
price that is close to the range of the appraised asset values as given
by the two independent asset appraisers (both pre-and post-adjustment
for timing of the transaction);
- Forecast dividend yield for the Year 2007 calculated by making reference
to financial projections as prepared the two independent asset appraisers;
- Forecast dividend yield for the Year 2007, which the Independent Financial
Advisor derived based on Forecast for 11-Month Period from
February 1, 2007-December 31, 2007 as prepared by the Management
Company and CPN and reviewed by KPMG Poomchai Audit Limited, a
certified auditor, that is higher than the level of dividend
yield of the Fund itself without investment in the Central Plaza Pinklao
Project and those of comparable property funds listed in the SET;
- The possibility that forecast dividend per unit after investment in
the Central Plaza Pinklao Project would be higher than that without
additional investment
It is the view of the Independent Financial Advisor that pursuing the
transaction of acquiring the Central Plaza Pinklao Project, with details
regarding the asset to be acquired as showed in Attachment 3, at the
maximum asset price of Baht 6,840.0 million is reasonable and provides
benefit to the Fund's unitholders. The opinion of the Independent
Financial Advisor in regard to the fairness of the maximum asset
acquisition price of the Central Plaza Pinklao Project is based on the
fact that the pricing method to determine the asset acquisition price is
based on the bookbuilding process at various prices that reflect a value
of the real properties acceptable to the owner of the real properties
and investors.
Actual asset acquisition price may be lower than the maximum acquisition
price mentioned earlier as the acquisition price of the Central Plaza Pinklao
Project would depend upon the amount raised from issuing and offering for
sale of investment units that is determined by the bookbuilding process at
various prices that reflect a value of the real properties acceptable to the
owner of the real properties and investors. The final price of the additional
investment units will be fixed taken into accounts, among other things, the
following considerations, namely the prevailing market price of the Fund's
investment units on the SET during the period when the additional investment
units are issued and offered for sale, the general market condition,
indication of interests received from investors during the bookbuilding
process and etc. Actual asset acquisition price is equal to the net
amount the Fund raised from capital increase, the amount equal to the
amount of capital raised from sale of investment units deducted by
estimated expenses for the issuance and offer for sale of the additional
investment units, the expenses for acquisition of the real properties
(e.g. various fees and taxes) and working capital for management
of the project (equivalent to general expenses of the Fund for a period of
approximately 1 month).